We developed a statistical model that projects the 2020 harvest price for corn, given a national corn yield and average of May futures prices. The harvest price is used in crop insurance. The current U.S. yield estimate from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is 178.5 bushels per acre. Given this yield estimate and average […]
In January, the U.S. and China ceremoniously signed the Phase 1 trade agreement. This was a positive development for U.S. agriculture, especially on the grains side. While there was ambiguity about the metrics and some doubt about China’s ability to meet those goals, the consensus was that China would be buying a lot of U.S. […]
On Thursday, USDA released its latest supply and demand estimates for June, and as expected, most of the changes were minor tweaks. A 50 million bushel (mb) reduction in ethanol demand for corn and a 25 mb cut in soybean exports showed up, as expected. The slightly bullish surprise of the day was a lower-than-expected […]
Federal aid in the form of Market Facilitation Program (MFP) and Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) payments have increased returns and the financial stability of grain farms in 2018, 2019, and likely in 2020. However, corn and soybean returns have been low since 2013, when the growth of corn use in ethanol plateaued. Recent declines […]
On Tuesday, the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) released its June Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets. The update incorporates government payment programs that were announced before June 1, 2020 and analyzes some of the market impacts of those programs. After outlining important assumptions, the FAPRI report included key outcomes relating to government […]
As the focus turns to the growing season and markets look to recover from the worst of the pandemic, export markets continue to reveal consumption information relevant to corn price formation during 2020. Exports in the corn complex will play a significant role in determining prices moving forward. Current marketing year estimates for corn exports […]
Due to continued increases in demand for certified organic grains, crop farmers that have transitioned from conventional to certified organic grains report higher net returns per acre (McBride et al., 2015; Greene et al., 2017; Greene and Vilorio, 2018; Center for Farm Financial Management, 2020). Despite this, certified organic land accounts for less than 2 […]
Reuters columnist Karen Braun indicated on Friday that, “U.S. soybean exports had a dismal April performance and possibly an even worse showing in May as shipments to China remain historically low, but corn exports hit a one-year high in April and improved on those volumes last month.” U.S. #agricultural #exports, year-to-date and current months, https://t.co/V85OpkE44w @USDA_ERS * Volumes. * #corn, #soybeans, #wheat. pic.twitter.com/cXZKMVxLhq — Farm Policy (@FarmPolicy) June 5, 2020 […]
Farmer sentiment improved slightly in May after falling sharply in both March and April. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reading in May was 103, up 7 points from the April reading of 96. The barometer’s small improvement left the gauge of farmer sentiment nearly 40 percent below its February peak of 168. This month’s survey […]
Some Illinois corn acres are still unplanted due to wet weather. The final plant date for crop insurance has passed for extreme southern Illinois (May 28) and is rapidly approaching for the rest of Illinois (June 5). After the final plant date for corn, farmers who purchased the COMBO crop insurance product can take a […]