February 25, 2020
Speaking on Thursday at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia, USDA Chief Economist Robert C. Johansson provided a broad outlook for U.S. agriculture. Today’s update provides an overview of key aspects of Dr. Johansson’s presentation. In his speech Thursday (transcript / slides), Dr. Johansson noted that, “Despite mixed signals heading into 2020, there has been important progress on the trade policy […]
February 25, 2020
Old crop corn basis and futures spreads continue to signal a smaller crop scenario than the price levels in the futures market suggest. Futures price levels reflect the uncertainty associated with the coronavirus and the potential weaker growth its continuation promises. Producer grain holding remains the popular explanation for a strong basis and small futures […]
February 18, 2020
Last week, the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Kansas City released updates regarding farm income, farmland values and agricultural credit conditions from the fourth quarter of 2019. And earlier this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Agricultural Survey for the fourth quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, a recent update posted at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which has […]
February 18, 2020
Soybean prices put in a moderate rally last week. An outlook for a large South American soybean crop and uncertainty of the impact on economic growth associated with the evolving coronavirus situation hang over U.S. soybean demand scenarios moving forward. Expanding soybean acreage in 2020 looks to test the prospects for lower ending stocks despite […]
February 17, 2020
Last week we reviewed the USDA’s latest farm income projections and noted sector-wide incomes are expected to increase again in 2020. Furthermore, current projections reflect an upward trend in farm income since 2016, with levels above the long-run, inflation-adjusted average. While all this is positive, farm income is only a single measure of the farm […]
February 13, 2020
This article analyzes if the history of 2014 farm bill payments can inform 2018 farm bill decisions between ARC-CO (Agriculture Risk Coverage – county) and PLC (Price Loss Coverage). The analysis finds that the ratio of prior market year average (MYA) price to the expected reference price for the forthcoming market year provides useful information […]
February 11, 2020
Uncertainties regarding the potential trade deal and coronavirus outbreak remain as negative forces for commodity markets. Corn prices came through the difficulty relatively well over the last couple of weeks. March corn futures prices continue to bounce around in a range between $3.75 and $3.95 seen since mid-December. Over this same period, consumption in some […]
February 10, 2020
Bloomberg writer Peggy Collins reported late last week that, “China’s leader Xi Jinping reassured U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call that Beijing would meet purchase goals outlined in the recent trade deal between the countries — despite the impact of the coronavirus on the Asian nation, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday. “‘Xi apparently said, may be a little […]
February 10, 2020
The USDA released it’s first – and early- forecast of net farm income for 2020. Farm income is an important – but not complete- measure of the health farm economy. While the headlines are positive, we took a more in-depth look at the estimates in this week’s post. Net Farm Income Figure 1 shows real, […]
February 7, 2020
Wall Street Journal writer Lingling Wei reported on Thursday that, “China said it would slash tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports in half as part of its efforts to implement a recently signed trade agreement with Washington. “Beginning Feb. 14, China will cut tariffs on some U.S. goods to 5% from 10%, while levies on some other items will be reduced […]
