USDA Agricultural Projections Show Decreased Soybean Acres
On Friday, the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) released selected tables prepared for the Department’s upcoming Agricultural Baseline Projections report. In part, the tables demonstrated that, “USDA estimated 82.5 million acres of soybean plantings for the spring of 2019, down from 89.1 million acres this year.”
Background
Friday’s OCE update explained that, “USDA’s long-term agricultural projections are a departmental consensus on a long-run representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. A complete report is issued every year in February.”
An overview of the 2018 long-term projections is available here, while additional background regarding the development of those projections can be found here.
Friday’s update added that, “The World Agricultural Outlook Board chairs an Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee that develops the projections,” which includes several other USDA agencies; however, “The Economic Research Service has the lead role in preparing the USDA long-term projections report.”
And a news update last week from USDA pointed out that, “The projections do not represent USDA forecasts, but rather reflect a conditional long-run scenario based upon specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. The Agricultural Act of 2014 is assumed to remain in effect through the projection period.”
The OCE also noted that, “The projections use as a starting point the short-term forecasts from the October 11, 2018 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.”