Recent soybean price weakness reflects the new tariff threats against China that emerged as an option for retaliation against Chinese behavior regarding the coronavirus. A collapse of the phase one trade deal looks politically feasible this year. If the U.S. and China rekindle the trade war, lower export totals, growth in ending stocks, and limits […]
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue announced the U.S. Department of Agriculture intends to make available up to $100 million in competitive grants for activities designed to expand the availability and sale of renewable fuels. “America’s energy independence is critical to our economic security, and President Trump fully recognizes the importance of our ethanol and […]
The impact of COVD-19 on cash prices for the 2019 through 2021 marketing years is estimated. These pre and post COVID-19 cash price projections, with revisions as warranted, will serve as a foundation to more formally access the damage done by the coronavirus on farm incomes in future articles. These price estimates will be useful […]
Recent ethanol plant closures and production slowdowns open up the possibility of demand destruction in corn used for ethanol beyond current projections. Some of the latest predictions saw very dire consequences with upwards of one billion gallons of lost ethanol production in 2020. The worst-case scenarios, like most dismal predictions for the economy, depend on […]
Soybean crush pace picked up substantially in February and March. Crush remains a bright spot for soybean use as exports continue to disappoint. The USDA raised the crush forecast in April to 2.125 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels over the March forecast. Disruptions in meat supply chains, both foreign and domestic, may blunt further […]
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue today announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP). This new U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) program will take several actions to assist farmers, ranchers, and consumers in response to the COVID-19 national emergency. President Trump directed USDA to craft this $19 billion immediate relief program to provide critical support […]
Recent declines in corn and soybean prices will result in lower marketing year average prices (MYA) prices, increasing the probability and potential size of 2019 Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments. These commodity title payments, to be received in October 2020, will provide farms with additional cash flows. However, PLC and […]
As the focus turns to the planting season and markets adjust to the new realities associated with the pandemic, export markets continue to reveal consumption information relevant to price formation during 2020. Exports will play a significant role in determining prices in both corn and soybean markets moving forward. A slower pace of soybean exports […]
On Thursday, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released three reports that provided updated information on agricultural trade, production and recent impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. A focus on wheat and rice, protein markets, and soybeans are included in today’s update. Wheat and Rice In its Grain: World Markets and Trade report, FAS stated that, “In the wake of COVID-19, concerns have […]
The restrictions put in place to “flatten the curve” in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic have had enormous and historically unprecedented impacts on U.S. gasoline consumption. The latest weekly data from the EIA indicates that gasoline use is now off by about 46 percent from the level prevailing in early March. A parallel decline in domestic […]